SREC Prices by State in 2026: NJ, PA, MD and VA Are Not Moving Together

Anyone tracking SREC prices by state in 2026 has confronted the same reality: the four largest Mid-Atlantic SREC markets – New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia – are moving in fundamentally different directions. NJ SREC prices remain structurally elevated by aggressive RPS targets and a pipeline that keeps compliance tight. PA SREC prices are in flux amid legislative uncertainty and the spillover effects of Pennsylvania’s RGGI exit. Maryland’s SREC market is repricing as renewable buildout accelerates. And Virginia SREC prices are being shaped by the Commonwealth’s Renewable Portfolio Standard Act – a program that is still finding its market equilibrium in only its fourth compliance year.

Understanding why these markets are diverging – and where each is headed – requires looking at the three structural drivers that determine SREC price trajectories: RPS compliance pressure, Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP) levels, and the pace of solar buildout relative to demand. Noreva tracks all four markets through its REC and SREC forecast platform, providing the market intelligence that buyers, sellers, project developers, and investors need to navigate an increasingly complex state-by-state SREC landscape.

How SREC Markets Work: The Price Mechanics

Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) are a subset of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) – one SREC is generated for each megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity produced by a qualified solar facility. SRECs derive their value from RPS compliance requirements that mandate electricity suppliers to source a specific percentage of their retail load from solar generation.

The key mechanics that determine SREC prices in any state market are:

• RPS solar carve-out: The percentage of retail load that must be served by solar. Higher and faster-escalating targets create more compliance demand.
• Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP): The penalty a supplier pays per SREC shortfall if it cannot procure enough SRECs. The ACP sets an effective price ceiling – SREC prices will not sustainably exceed the ACP because suppliers will simply pay the ACP rather than buy SRECs at a higher price.
• Solar supply: The volume of SREC-generating capacity online and eligible to generate SRECs into the compliance pool. If supply grows faster than the RPS target, prices fall toward zero. If targets outpace supply, prices rise toward the ACP.
• Banking provisions: Whether SRECs can be banked (held for future compliance years) affects market dynamics. Markets with multi-year banking periods smooth out price volatility; markets with short banking windows can see sharp price swings.

With this framework in place, the divergence across NJ, PA, MD, and VA becomes structurally legible.

New Jersey SREC Prices in 2026

New Jersey has one of the most mature and structurally tight SREC markets in the country. The state’s RPS program has set aggressive solar targets that have kept compliance demand consistently above available supply – a dynamic that has supported NJ SREC prices near or at elevated levels for multiple consecutive compliance years.

Why NJ SREC Prices Remain Elevated

New Jersey’s Class I REC program and solar carve-out targets have been routinely revised upward through legislative action, ensuring that demand growth outpaces solar supply additions. Key factors supporting NJ SREC pricing in 2026:

• Aggressive target escalation: New Jersey’s solar carve-out escalates meaningfully each year under the Clean Energy Act. With each upward step, compliance demand expands, absorbing new solar supply additions that would otherwise loosen the market.
• ACP backstop: New Jersey’s ACP provides a firm price ceiling that functions as a market backstop. NJ SREC prices trading near the ACP signal that compliance demand is tight relative to supply – the structural condition that has characterized the NJ market for most of recent years.
• Offshore wind interaction: New Jersey’s aggressive offshore wind development program – among the most ambitious in the US – will eventually bring significant renewable capacity online that affects the overall REC compliance stack, but the timeline for offshore wind capacity to generate qualifying SRECs (if any) is still being worked through in regulatory proceedings. In the near term, the offshore wind buildout is not meaningfully loosening the solar SREC market.
• Interconnection constraints: New solar development in New Jersey has faced interconnection queue delays that have slowed the pace of new SREC supply additions, providing support for prices above levels that a purely supply-growth model would predict.

For SREC buyers in New Jersey – primarily electricity suppliers with compliance obligations – the NJ market in 2026 is one of the most expensive in the region. For sellers (solar generators), NJ remains among the most attractive SREC revenue environments in the Mid-Atlantic.

Pennsylvania SREC Prices in 2026

Pennsylvania’s SREC market presents a more complicated picture in 2026, shaped by legislative uncertainty, the state’s RGGI exit (which has reshaped energy price expectations across the state’s power sector), and a solar carve-out structure that has historically been less aggressive than New Jersey’s.

Why PA SREC Prices Are in Flux

Pennsylvania’s Tier I and Tier II RPS structure includes a PA SREC carve-out, but the Pennsylvania RPS has been subject to periodic legislative scrutiny over expansion of targets. In 2026, the following dynamics are shaping PA SREC prices:

• Legislative uncertainty on RPS expansion: Pennsylvania has not consistently escalated its solar targets at the pace of New Jersey, creating a compliance environment that is structurally looser than the NJ market. Legislative discussions around RPS expansion have not produced the binding upward target revisions that would tighten the market.
• RGGI exit spillover: Pennsylvania’s departure from RGGI – finalized through executive action and sustained through legislative and judicial proceedings – has reshaped power sector economics in the state. The removal of a carbon price signal affects the merit order for dispatch and, indirectly, the economics of new solar project development that would add SREC supply. The net effect on PA SREC prices is complex: reduced carbon pricing removes a revenue uplift for renewables, potentially slowing some solar development, but the primary SREC price driver remains the RPS structure rather than power price.
• PJM interconnection dynamics: PJM’s interconnection queue reforms affect how quickly new solar capacity in Pennsylvania can come online. Near-term supply additions are constrained by interconnection timelines, providing some price support for PA SRECs despite looser targets.
• Out-of-state SREC eligibility: Pennsylvania allows out-of-state SRECs from certain states to be used for PA compliance, which creates a linkage to broader Mid-Atlantic SREC supply dynamics. In a tighter regional supply environment, this linkage can support PA SREC prices; in a looser environment, it can put downward pressure on prices.

For investors and project developers assessing Pennsylvania solar revenue, the PA SREC market in 2026 requires careful modeling of the RPS trajectory and its interaction with regional supply dynamics. Noreva’s REC merchant curve forecasts provide multi-year PA SREC price scenarios essential for project finance underwriting.

Maryland SREC Prices in 2026

Maryland’s SREC market has been one of the most dynamic in the Mid-Atlantic, with the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard consistently revised upward to align with the Clean and Renewable Energy Standard (CARES) and Maryland’s long-term clean energy goals. Maryland’s MD SREC market in 2026 reflects the tension between accelerating renewable supply additions and ambitious demand targets.

Maryland’s SREC Price Dynamics

• CARES target escalation: Maryland’s clean energy legislation has set ambitious solar targets that continue to step up through 2030 and beyond. Each target increase expands compliance demand, but Maryland’s proximity to major load centers has also made it an attractive location for solar development – meaning supply additions are competitive.
• Community Solar interaction: Maryland’s community solar program has been a significant contributor to solar capacity growth in the state, generating SRECs that enter the compliance pool. The pace of community solar development affects the supply side of the SREC equation.
• ACP level: Maryland’s ACP level sets the ceiling for MD SREC prices. In 2026, Maryland’s SREC prices have traded at a discount to the full ACP, reflecting that supply additions have kept pace with target escalation – a loosening trend relative to the tighter conditions of prior compliance years.
• Offshore wind development: Maryland’s offshore wind commitments (Skipjack and US Wind projects) will eventually bring large blocks of offshore renewable capacity online. To the extent offshore wind projects are eligible for Maryland SREC-like compliance instruments, their addition to the compliance pool would be supply-bearish for the market. The timing and structure of offshore wind compliance eligibility in Maryland is an active variable in SREC price forecasting.

Virginia SREC Prices in 2026

Virginia’s SREC market is the newest of the four, launched under the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) and now in its fourth compliance year. Virginia SREC prices in 2026 reflect the characteristic dynamics of a young RPS market: regulatory design uncertainty, a still-forming supply base, and demand targets that are ramping up from a low baseline.

Virginia’s Market Structure and 2026 Pricing

• VCEA solar targets: The VCEA mandates significant growth in Virginia’s RPS solar carve-out through 2035 and beyond. The target trajectory is aggressive enough that, absent rapid solar buildout, compliance pressure will tighten materially – supporting Virginia REC and SREC prices in the medium term.
• Dominion Energy and Appalachian Power: Virginia’s compliance obligation falls primarily on the state’s two dominant utilities – Dominion Energy Virginia and Appalachian Power. As investor-owned utilities, their compliance procurement strategies materially affect market clearing prices. Utility-scale solar procurement by Dominion under the VCEA both adds supply and satisfies demand in ways that affect the residual SREC market available to third parties.
• In-state vs. out-of-state eligibility: Virginia’s in-state REC designation creates a bifurcated market between Virginia-sited generation and out-of-state alternatives. In-state SRECs command a premium due to VCEA in-state sourcing preferences.
• Market maturity: As a relatively new compliance program, Virginia’s SREC market has experienced the price discovery dynamics typical of early-stage RPS markets – including periods of elevated prices when supply is thin and compliance buyers are uncertain, followed by correction as market participants learn to navigate the program. By 2026, the market is more orderly, but residual uncertainty about the VCEA’s long-term structure continues to shape buyer and seller behavior.

State-by-State SREC Price Comparison: Key Variables

SREC Market Structure Comparison – NJ, PA, MD, VA (2026)

Implications for Solar Developers and SREC Buyers

For Solar Project Developers

SREC revenue projections are a critical component of project finance underwriting for solar assets in these markets. A 10-year merchant SREC revenue stack in NJ, PA, MD, or VA requires multi-year price forecasts that account for each state’s RPS escalation, supply pipeline, ACP trajectory, and policy risk. Noreva’s REC merchant curve and renewable asset valuation frameworks provide the forward SREC price scenarios – by state, by compliance year – that project finance teams need for accurate revenue modeling. Our REC market fundamentals analysis underpins each state forecast.

For SREC Buyers

Corporate buyers procuring SRECs for voluntary claims or electricity suppliers managing RPS compliance should pay close attention to the diverging price trajectories across states. A procurement strategy built on the assumption that Mid-Atlantic SREC markets move together will be systematically wrong in 2026 – and the cost of that error compounds across a multi-year compliance obligation. State-by-state price forecasts, banking optimization, and cross-state arbitrage analysis are all essential inputs for sophisticated SREC procurement. Noreva’s voluntary REC market and compliance REC market coverage provides the forecast visibility to support these decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions: SREC Prices by State

Why are SREC prices different in each state?

Each state’s SREC price reflects the balance between RPS compliance demand (set by the solar carve-out target and retail load covered) and solar supply (SREC-generating capacity online and eligible). ACP levels set effective price ceilings. States with tighter supply-demand balances – like New Jersey – see higher SREC prices; states with looser markets see lower prices.

What is an NJ SREC worth in 2026?

NJ SREC prices in 2026 reflect the structurally tight compliance environment created by New Jersey’s aggressive solar targets and the ACP backstop. Noreva tracks current and forward NJ SREC prices as part of its NJ Class I coverage. Contact our team for current pricing data.

How does the Alternative Compliance Payment affect SREC prices?

The Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP) is the maximum price a compliance buyer will pay for an SREC – if SRECs are more expensive than the ACP, the buyer pays the ACP penalty instead. This makes the ACP an effective price ceiling. In practice, SREC prices trade below, at, or occasionally near the ACP depending on market tightness.

Can SRECs from one state be used in another?

SREC market eligibility rules vary by state. Some states allow out-of-state SRECs with geographic restrictions; others require in-state siting. Virginia’s VCEA, for example, includes in-state sourcing preferences. Pennsylvania allows certain out-of-state SRECs. Understanding eligibility rules is essential for cross-state SREC procurement strategies.

How does Noreva forecast SREC prices?

Noreva’s SREC price forecasts are built on a fundamentals model that inputs each state’s RPS target trajectory, eligible supply pipeline, ACP levels, banking provisions, and policy risk scenarios. Our REC merchant curves provide multi-year forward SREC price projections by state and compliance tier – calibrated continuously as market data and regulatory decisions evolve. Book a demo to access Noreva’s SREC price forecast data.

Get State-Level SREC Price Forecasts from Noreva

Noreva tracks SREC markets in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, and all major US state RPS programs – providing the forward price curves and fundamentals analysis that project developers, compliance buyers, and investors need to navigate a diverging state-by-state SREC landscape. Our REC merchant curves are updated continuously as regulatory and market conditions evolve.

Book a demo to access Noreva’s SREC price forecasts by state.