US Power Markets: LMP Forecasts, Nodal Pricing & Merchant Curves

PJM Interconnection is the largest organized wholesale electricity market in the United States, serving over 65 million people across 13 states and DC. PJM operates a nodal LMP market with hundreds of distinct pricing points, a capacity market (RPM) with locational clearing, and an active financial transmission right (FTR) market. The PJM power price landscape is shaped by natural gas infrastructure in the Mid-Atlantic, coal retirement dynamics in the Midwest, and the rapid buildout of solar and offshore wind in PJM East states. Noreva provides PJM hub and zonal LMP curves, nodal basis forecasts, and scenario analysis aligned to the RPM capacity market outlook. See: Project Finance and PJM Auction Repercussions.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) operates as an energy-only market with no capacity market, making energy LMP and ancillary services revenue the sole drivers of generator economics. ERCOT’s price dynamics are heavily influenced by Texas wind and solar penetration, natural gas pipeline constraints during winter weather events, and the state’s rapidly growing data center and industrial load. Congestion between West Texas renewable generation zones and Houston/Dallas load centers creates structural basis risk for generators. Noreva’s ERCOT forecasts cover hub and settlement point LMP curves, congestion basis analysis, and scenario modeling for demand growth and renewable build trajectories. See: The Shape of the Storm: Lessons from Fern.

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) manages one of the most complex and renewable-heavy power markets in North America. California’s aggressive clean energy targets (100% zero-carbon electricity by 2045) are reshaping the dispatch stack, creating negative midday prices in solar-saturated conditions and large morning and evening ramp premiums that reward flexible assets. Storage economics in CAISO are increasingly driven by the price spread between solar-suppressed midday LMPs and evening peak prices. Noreva provides CAISO NP15 and SP15 LMP curves, nodal basis forecasts, generation economics analysis, and storage valuation scenarios. See: The Era of Realism for California PCC1.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) covers a broad swath of the Midwest and South, from Manitoba to Louisiana. MISO power prices are driven by a generation stack in transition: significant coal retirement underway, strong wind development in the upper Midwest, and growing solar penetration in the South region. Congestion between MISO North and MISO South zones, and between MISO and adjacent markets at the PJM and SPP interfaces, creates material basis exposure for generators and load. Noreva provides MISO hub and local resource zone LMP curves, congestion analysis, and scenario modeling for the South region’s accelerating capacity transition. See: Dispatchable Dominance in SPP and MISO.

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) operates New York’s zonal wholesale market across load zones A through K. The market is heavily constrained by transmission infrastructure, particularly into the New York City and Long Island load pockets, creating persistent zonal price premiums over upstate zones. Aggressive offshore wind procurement under the state’s climate targets is set to add substantial new supply while displacing gas-fired generation over the next decade. Noreva provides NYISO zonal LMP curves, NYC load pocket premium analysis, transmission constraint analysis, and offshore wind integration scenarios. See: Transmission Matters Most in Bleak NYISO Forecasts and New York’s Power Pricing Paradox.

ISO New England (ISO-NE) runs the most gas-dependent organized power market in the United States: roughly half of New England’s generation is gas-fired, and limited pipeline infrastructure produces severe winter price spikes when heating demand competes with power generation. Offshore wind procurements in Massachusetts and Connecticut, with more than 6 GW contracted, are set to structurally change that dynamic while displacing aging gas- and oil-burning capacity. Noreva provides ISO-NE zonal LMP curves across the region’s eight pricing zones, winter gas constraint analysis, import interface modeling, and offshore wind integration scenarios. See: Everyone’s Chasing Capacity.

The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) spans 14 states from North Dakota to Texas and operates one of the most wind-intensive power markets in North America, with wind above 30% of installed capacity. Heavy wind output from Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas panhandle suppresses overnight and shoulder-hour prices and creates persistent basis differentials between high-wind generation zones and Southern load centers, while accelerating coal retirements are pulling a new gas buildout into the stack. Noreva provides SPP hub and zonal LMP curves, wind curtailment and congestion basis analysis, and dispatchable capacity scenario modeling. See: Dispatchable Dominance in SPP and MISO and Can Gas Save SPP?