Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices: Forecasts, Prompt-Month Curve and Long-Term Outlook
This page covers Noreva’s natural gas coverage: a Henry Hub natural gas price forecast for the prompt month, published weekly and available now, with a Henry Hub forward curve and a Henry Hub long-term merchant curve coming next, and coverage of other major North American hubs to follow. Noreva, an energy market data and analytics provider (formerly Karbone Research), launched this natural gas coverage in August 2026 as an extension of its work in power, capacity and environmental attributes, for producers, LNG and midstream companies, power generators, utilities and investors who price and hedge U.S. gas.
Noreva’s house view is that natural gas prices will be structurally higher and more volatile over the next decade (Noreva press release, August 5, 2026): reserve replacement has run below the rate of production since 2022, and LNG exports and firm power demand are pulling on a tighter surplus than the current traded forward curve assumes. In its high-price scenario, Noreva sees periods of natural gas prices above $10/MMBtu in certain hubs (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026), a materially different natural gas price forecast than the market’s current pricing.
Prompt-month horizon, from the next unreported EIA storage week
Published every Wednesday, model rerun daily
Regional price hubs covered across North America
Pricing scenarios based on weather, storage, injections, exports, and demand forecasts
In brief
- Henry Hub (NYMEX) prompt-month natural gas price forecast, live now, covering the next unreported EIA storage week out to a seven-week horizon.
- Published every Wednesday on the Noreva Hub (norevahub.ai); the underlying model reruns daily as new weather and storage data arrive (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026).
- Delivered through the Noreva Hub and the weekly Henry Hub newsletter: expected weekly average price with a P25/P75 band, EIA storage injection estimate, and a market update.
- Long-term house view: structurally higher and more volatile natural gas prices over the next decade (Noreva press release, August 5, 2026), with a high-price scenario above $10/MMBtu in certain hubs (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026).
- Coming next: a Henry Hub forward curve, a Henry Hub long-term merchant curve, and coverage of other major North American hubs to follow.
What does Noreva’s natural gas coverage include?
Noreva’s natural gas coverage is being built in stages, starting with the near-term Henry Hub curve and extending to mid-term and long-term curves for the major North American hubs (Noreva natural gas coverage status, September 2026). As the forward and long-term legs come online, they will sit alongside Noreva’s other forecast services. The table below reflects Noreva’s coverage status as of September 2026: only the Henry Hub prompt-month forecast is available; everything else is coming soon or to follow.
Natural gas coverage by product (Noreva natural gas coverage status, September 2026)
Product
Hub
Horizon
Status
Henry Hub prompt-month forecast (weekly average price with P25/P75 band, EIA storage injection estimate, weekly market update)
Henry Hub (NYMEX)
Next unreported EIA storage week to 7 weeks, published weekly
Available
Henry Hub forward curve
Henry Hub (NYMEX)
Multi-year forward
Coming soon
Long-term merchant curve
Henry Hub (NYMEX)
Long-term
Coming soon
Regional hub coverage (major North American hubs)
Regional
Not yet defined
To follow
How does Noreva forecast the Henry Hub prompt month?
As with Noreva’s approach across power, capacity and fuels (see how Noreva builds its forecasts), the Henry Hub prompt-month model is built to be decomposable rather than a black box: every published number can be traced back to the degree days, demand terms and balance condition that produced it (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026). Rather than fitting to price patterns, the model forecasts the physical storage balance first, then converts that balance into a fair-value price.
Every run starts from three anchors: the most recent EIA working-gas storage print, which sets the last known inventory level; the most recent NYMEX settle, which sets the last known price; and observed weather, since the current week is always scored against real temperatures rather than a forecast of them. Weather itself is built from county-level, population-weighted degree days (Heating Degree Days on a 60°F base and Cooling Degree Days on a 65°F base) observed through today and extended forward using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ 50-member ensemble, which also gives a direct read on forecast uncertainty.
Five stages of Noreva’s Henry Hub prompt-month model (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026)
Stage
Output
1. Regional weather
County-level, population-weighted weekly degree days, observed through today and forecast via the ECMWF ensemble, aggregated to the five EIA storage regions
2. Weekly balance estimate
Nowcast of the current week's storage change and a forecast of each future week's change, by region
3. Storage level forecast
Projected Lower 48 inventory path, anchored on the last EIA print and cumulating subsequent injection or withdrawal estimates
4. Storage-implied fair value
Seasonally conditioned fair-value price in $/MMBtu for each nowcast and forecast week
5. Published curve
Weekly price average and band, blending the fundamental fair-value forecast with current price levels in a mean-reverting manner
How does the storage balance become a published price?
The weekly storage-change estimate is a regression on degree days, gas-fired power burn and holiday effects, with LNG terminal outages and other step-change events handled physically rather than statistically. Production is deliberately left out as a direct input, since only about 70% of daily flows are observable from pipeline scrapes; its effect is instead carried in the model’s residual, the gap between predicted and reported storage change, smoothed with an exponential moving average and decomposed into a seasonal pattern, a prevailing tight-or-loose regime, and a fading current surprise.
That storage deviation is then mapped to a fair-value price through a relationship that steepens as the market tightens, so price responds more aggressively to each incremental unit of scarcity once storage is already below normal. The published forecast starts from the last daily settle and mean-reverts toward this storage-implied fair value across the horizon, following a half-life decay, with a published 50% band built from trailing price-return variance that widens in volatile markets and in later forecast weeks.
Because the platform is configurable, Noreva also varies the underlying assumptions, not just the price output, to bound the range of outcomes:
Henry Hub prompt-month configuration (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026)
Dimension
High
Base
Low
Weather path
Extreme weather
Ensemble mean
Mild weather
LNG feedgas
Full nominations, no outages
Observed flows
Extended outages
Gas-fired power burn
Elevated
Baseline
Subdued
Balance regime carry
Persistently tight
Current regime
Persistently loose
What does a weekly Henry Hub edition look like?
Each Wednesday edition of the Henry Hub newsletter gives a forecast for the prompt-month contract, an estimate of the next EIA storage print, and a short market update. The September 16, 2026 edition is a representative sample (Noreva, Henry Hub Newsletter, September 16, 2026):
Price call
The October contract (NGV26) averaged $2.85/MMBtu in the week ending September 11 after weather revisions implied less cooling demand; Noreva expected $2.90/MMBtu for the week ending September 18 and $2.93/MMBtu for the week ending September 25, with a P25 of $2.58 and a P75 of $3.28, as southern heat stayed above its seasonal norm and the first meaningful heating demand entered the forecast.
Storage call
An injection of 48 Bcf expected for the week ending September 11 (P25 40, P75 56), against 87 Bcf in the same week last year and a five-year average of 74 Bcf, with record southern heat tempering the injection.
Market update
A note on U.S. LNG export capacity additions and their implications for domestic gas demand, in that edition the expansion of a Gulf Coast export project toward a planned 2030 start.
The numbers above are a dated sample, not the current forecast. The live curve, its band and the latest storage estimate are published each week on the Noreva Hub and in the Henry Hub newsletter.
What is Noreva’s long-term view on U.S. natural gas prices?
Noreva’s inaugural natural gas report describes a market that has priced future scarcity into the Henry Hub forward curve for two decades and been wrong every time, as cheap shale supply kept grinding the curve down. Noreva’s argument is that the supply side of that story has changed: gas reserves have not seen net growth since 2022, as drillers have extracted more gas than new economic sources added (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026).
On the demand side, Noreva’s report argues that LNG exports may prove a more important force than data center or broad electrification demand in keeping the gas market tight through the next decade. U.S. LNG exports are set to grow about 160% by roughly 2030, and that demand is especially price insensitive: U.S. LNG terminals already run at 95%-plus utilization, and cargoes ship regardless of the domestic price as long as the export spread clears (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026).
Power demand adds a second, slower-building pressure: firm gas-fired generation has become harder to replace on the timeline utilities need, and the market has grown reluctant to let capacity slated for retirement go out of service, a dynamic also visible in delayed coal retirements. Noreva’s report frames this as a “beyond the molecule” effect: natural gas and capacity price strength have proved highly interlinked, with increased demand for gas driven in part by higher capacity prices (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026), a mechanism Noreva has also traced in SPP and PJM. None of this is a base-case price forecast: it is the reasoning behind Noreva’s high-price scenario, in which certain hubs see periods above $10/MMBtu. For the full data and reasoning behind this view, see Noreva’s related market view, “U.S. Natural Gas Price Forecast: Why Noreva Breaks From the Forward Curve.”
“The market is beginning to recognize the upside risk in natural gas, but most long-term forecasts still assume another wave of cheap supply will arrive on time and in sufficient volume.”
Peter GardettCEO (Noreva press release, August 5, 2026)
What moves Henry Hub prices?
The near-term drivers below are qualitative descriptions of the mechanisms behind Noreva’s model, not a substitute for the published forecast itself.
What moves the Henry Hub prompt-month price
Driver
Mechanism
Storage vs. 5-year normal
The EIA's weekly natural gas storage report shows how Lower 48 working gas compares with the trailing seasonal average; prices move to reflect the tightness or surplus.
Weather, LNG feedgas and power burn
Degree days, export-terminal flows and gas-fired generation drive the weekly storage draw or build; Noreva models weather from an ECMWF ensemble and treats LNG outages as physical events.
Production and associated gas
Output from gas-directed and associated drilling sets the supply side of the balance; only partly observable, so its effect shows mainly through the model's residual.
Pipeline constraints and regional basis
Takeaway capacity and regional bottlenecks can strand supply or strain a hub even when the national balance looks comfortable, pushing basis away from Henry Hub.
Noreva in the news
These Noreva pages redirect to coverage on the media outlets’ own sites:
Noreva Prompt, Forward Natural Gas Price Forecasts Featured by NGI
Noreva Evaluates Risks to US Natural Gas Supply, Industrials
On Schwab Network, Noreva’s Peter Gardett Discusses Natural Gas and Emerging Energy Technologies
Why does natural gas matter for power, capacity and environmental attributes?
Noreva’s natural gas coverage did not start from scratch: it grew out of building forward pricing for power, capacity and clean fuels, where a nuanced view of natural gas turned out to be unavoidable. As those methodologies expanded to handle more volatile, real-world operating conditions, it became clear that traditional Henry Hub price discovery (largely just following the futures curve) no longer worked for many market participants, particularly as realities in the gas fields shifted faster than the forward curve did (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026).
The links run in both directions: natural gas and capacity price strength have proved highly interlinked, with increased demand for gas driven in part by higher capacity prices (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026), which is why Noreva ties its natural gas and capacity work together rather than modeling either in isolation. Heavier use of natural gas in power generation relative to renewables and batteries also drives up demand for renewable energy credits and other environmental attributes priced as fossil-fuel offsets. The interaction with power prices is less direct and plays out mostly through demand destruction and fuel switching over the long term: as gas prices approach double-digit levels, the more durable beneficiaries may be developers of battery storage assets more than power generators themselves. Natural gas sits inside Noreva’s broader fuels coverage, alongside LCFS, RINs and RNG.
Who uses Noreva’s natural gas forecasts?
Natural gas forecasts: who uses what
Profile
Primary need
Noreva output
Producers
Budget and hedge near-term Henry Hub exposure; size longer-dated positions once forward curves publish.
Weekly prompt-month forecast now; forward and long-term curves to follow.
LNG and midstream
Underwrite feedgas and pipeline decisions against a storage-driven near-term view.
Prompt-month forecast, plus Noreva's long-term LNG demand view.
Power generators and tolling counterparties
Price gas-fired dispatch and tolling deals against near-term physical drivers.
Weekly Henry Hub curve, read alongside Noreva's power and capacity coverage.
Utilities and hedgers
Set procurement and hedging bands from a decomposable, non-opaque forecast.
Weekly forecast with its published 50% band.
Investors and project finance
Stress-test gas exposure in valuation and financing cases against Noreva's structural view.
Near-term forecast now; long-term curves and valuation support to follow.
Related market views
PJM gas bid fever may be breaking
Can Gas Save SPP?
Frequently asked questions: Henry Hub and natural gas prices
What is the Henry Hub natural gas price forecast for the next weeks?
Noreva publishes a Henry Hub (NYMEX) prompt-month forecast every Wednesday, covering the next unreported EIA storage week out to a seven-week horizon, with the underlying model rerun daily. Each edition gives the expected weekly average price for the prompt contract with a P25/P75 band, an estimate of the next EIA storage injection, and a short market update; the current curve and its 50% band are available on the Noreva Hub. To receive it as soon as it’s published, sign up for Noreva’s weekly Henry Hub newsletter rather than relying on a single number here, since the forecast changes with each new EIA storage print and weather update.
What does Noreva's Henry Hub prompt-month forecast cover?
Noreva’s Henry Hub prompt-month forecast covers the next unreported EIA storage week out to a seven-week horizon, built from the physical storage balance (weather, power burn and LNG feedgas) instead of being fitted to price patterns (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026). Each published number mean-reverts from the last NYMEX settle toward a storage-implied fair value, with a published 50% band around the curve.
Does Noreva forecast other natural gas hubs beyond Henry Hub?
Not yet. Noreva’s natural gas coverage currently centers on Henry Hub, the national benchmark. Forward and long-term curves for the major North American hubs are planned to follow the near-term Henry Hub curve (Noreva, September 2026).
How often is the forecast updated?
The published Henry Hub prompt-month curve comes out weekly, on Wednesdays. The model behind it reruns daily as new weather observations and market settles arrive, so the inputs stay current even between publication days (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026).
Where does the storage data come from?
The anchor for every run is the most recently reported EIA working-gas storage print for the Lower 48. Noreva walks that level forward week by week using a model of weekly storage change built from county-level, population-weighted degree days, gas-fired power burn, and LNG feedgas flows, with disruptions such as terminal outages handled as physical step changes rather than statistical inputs (Noreva, Henry Hub Prompt Month Forecast Methodology, August 2026).
How do natural gas prices affect capacity prices?
Natural gas and capacity prices have proved highly interlinked: increased demand for gas has been driven in part by higher capacity prices, since gas-fired plants remain the marginal unit in most power stacks (Noreva, The Truth About Henry Hub, August 2026). See Noreva’s capacity coverage for the fuller cross-market view.
See the market. Price the future.
See the market. Price the future.
See the market. Price the future.
See the market. Price the future.
See the market. Price the future.
See the market. Price the future.
CONTACT US
Get Noreva’s Henry Hub forecast
The prompt-month forecast publishes every Wednesday: sign up for the Henry Hub newsletter to receive it as it lands. To see the full natural gas coverage roadmap (forward curve, long-term merchant curve and regional hubs) as it rolls out, book a demo.