Noreva in the media – coverage featuring Peter Gardett of Noreva in IJGlobal.
In brief: IJGlobal drew on Noreva Research data showing a rare softening in US capacity price forecasts and warned project finance teams to recalibrate. Noreva’s Peter Gardett said: “The uncertainty bounds are incredibly wide.”
Noreva, an energy market data and analytics provider (formerly Karbone Research), was featured in an IJGlobal analysis warning project finance executives to recalibrate as US capacity price forecasts show a rare softening after years of tightening. The piece drew on Noreva Research data to make the case that financing assumptions built during the run-up years may no longer hold.
What the IJGlobal coverage examined
The article examined a shift project finance teams have not had to underwrite for years: US capacity price forecasts easing rather than climbing. That matters for financing costs because capacity revenue is a core input to debt sizing and coverage ratios on generation assets. The coverage also pointed to how sharply that picture already varies by market. Clearing prices run around $270/MW-day in PJM against roughly $116-126/MW-day in MISO, a spread wide enough on its own to change what a lender or sponsor can assume about a given project’s revenue floor.
Gardett’s contribution, as quoted in IJGlobal, was to name the width of the range rather than resolve it: “The uncertainty bounds are incredibly wide.”
The width itself is the finding, not just a caveat. As the gap between plausible high and low capacity price outcomes widens, the underwriting question shifts from a single earnings estimate to a workable range of outcomes the deal can withstand.
Why capacity price softening matters for project finance
For the developers, asset owners, and project finance teams Noreva serves, a softening capacity forecast means more than a one-line revision. It forces a resizing exercise across every deal that leaned on tighter, more bullish assumptions. Noreva’s forecasting work is built around this kind of dispersion: transaction-aligned capacity price forecasts that let lenders and sponsors size debt against a defensible range instead of a single optimistic estimate, and see, market by market, where a spread like the one between PJM and MISO changes the answer.
Frequently asked questions
Why are US capacity price forecasts softening?
Per the IJGlobal coverage of Noreva Research data, capacity price forecasts are easing for the first time in years, widening the uncertainty bounds project finance teams must underwrite around future capacity revenue.
Why do PJM and MISO capacity prices differ so much?
As reported by IJGlobal, clearing prices run around $270/MW-day in PJM versus roughly $116-126/MW-day in MISO. The gap reflects how differently supply, demand, and market design are evolving across regions.
How does Noreva track capacity price risk for project finance?
Noreva builds transaction-aligned capacity price forecasts and scenario ranges across US markets, giving project finance teams and asset owners a defensible basis for debt sizing as capacity revenue assumptions shift.
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