Noreva on US Gas: Regional Price Blowouts, Not a $10 Plateau

What the Hart Energy coverage examined

Hart Energy covered Noreva’s entry into US natural gas forecasting, built on a report released August 5. The forecast rests on drivers that Noreva’s analysts see tightening the market at the same time: slower supply growth, a fast expansion of LNG export capacity and power demand from data centers. In the high-price case, select US hubs could trade above $10/MMBtu (Noreva, cited by Hart Energy, 08/2026). The article makes clear this is not a call for prices to stay there.

Noreva’s report takes issue with the long-term forecasts that assume prices stay low and calm over the next decade. Its supply argument is about reserves: since 2022, US producers have pulled more gas out of the ground than they have booked in new profitable reserves, so the base is shrinking even as output holds up. Hart Energy quotes the report on the cost of fixing that: “Exploration and production companies are spending triple what they did in 2021 to add to their inventory, and it is still not enough to replace what they have drilled” (Noreva report, cited by Hart Energy, 08/2026).

Andrew Kese, a natural gas analyst at Noreva, set the scope of the call. The risk is regional, and it is about volatility: “In [certain areas] there will be extreme volatility through the early 2030s, where supply-demand imbalances regionally could see blowouts in prices,” Kese told Hart Energy.

Kese named the Gulf Coast and Henry Hub regions, along with areas where data center buildout is particularly heavy. He also acknowledged that higher prices would likely trigger additional drilling in gas-focused basins, and gave the long-run anchor, which sits well below the spikes (Noreva, cited by Hart Energy, 08/2026): “Gas at $4 unlocks lots of inventory in the U.S.,” he said. “I think we can expect to see prices stabilize for the long term around $4 or $5, but the road to that will be rocky.”

Noreva’s chief executive framed the thesis as a question of base case: “The market is beginning to recognize the upside risk in natural gas, but most long-term forecasts still assume another wave of cheap supply will arrive on time and in sufficient volume,” said Peter Gardett, Noreva’s CEO. “We think that’s the wrong base case.”

On what that means for pricing, Gardett added: “Our research suggests natural gas could shift from an abundant, discounted fuel to one that increasingly commands an energy security premium,” Gardett said.

The counterpoint from East Daley Analytics

Hart Energy also ran the other side. Jack Weixel, a senior director at East Daley Analytics, credited the report with asking the right questions on LNG exports and data center load, then argued that it sells short how quickly producers can bring on new supply. “The production is there,” Weixel told Hart Energy. “We know that the infrastructure is also there to deliver it to a large degree.”

Weixel said the Haynesville Shale still has room to expand and is well placed to supply Gulf Coast LNG. He pointed to roughly 32 Bcf/d of US gas infrastructure projects planned or under development through 2030, and put new data center demand at roughly 6 Bcf/d by the end of the decade, below some bullish scenarios (East Daley Analytics, cited by Hart Energy, 08/2026). He agreed that $10/MMBtu gas is not sustainable: “Once you get to even $5 or $6 gas, you can start kicking off drilling in the Anadarko, Eagle Ford, Barnett, Rockies and elsewhere,” he said.

The two views overlap more than the headline suggests. Both put a ceiling on prolonged $10 gas, and both expect supply to respond to price. The disagreement is about how fast supply responds and how much gas data centers will need. Weixel also argued that the report gives too little weight to pipeline capacity and to basins other than the Permian.

Why it matters for producers, investors, and asset owners

A national average hides the risk this coverage describes. Noreva’s view, set out in its natural gas coverage launched in August 2026, is that regional supply-demand imbalances, including in the Gulf Coast and Henry Hub regions, can produce price blowouts that a long-run average will not show. The East Daley counterpoint sharpens the question: how quickly do the Haynesville and other basins respond when a hub spikes? For anyone valuing a gas-fired asset or pricing a supply contract, the scenario to test is the one Kese described: a long-run anchor around $4 or $5, with a rocky road to it and blowouts that land at specific hubs rather than in the national average.