Inaugural analysis finds constrained supply growth, surging LNG exports and rising power demand could push select U.S. gas hubs above $10/MMBtu
NEW YORK, August 5, 2026 — Noreva, an AI-powered market intelligence platform for energy and commodities markets, today launched U.S. natural gas pricing and forecasting coverage. Its inaugural report argues that most long-term forecasts underestimate the potential for structurally higher and more volatile natural gas prices over the next decade.
The report, The Truth About Henry Hub: Uncharted Waters for Natural Gas Prices in the Age of AI, finds that many forecasts still assume low-cost supply will continue growing fast enough to meet demand. Noreva’s analysis suggests that assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to support as reserve replacement slows, LNG exports expand and demand for reliable power accelerates. Under its high-price scenario, certain U.S. gas hubs could experience periods above $10/MMBtu—a sharp departure from consensus forecasts and today’s forward curve.
“The market is beginning to recognize the upside risk in natural gas, but most long-term forecasts still assume another wave of cheap supply will arrive on time and in sufficient volume,” said Peter Gardett, CEO of Noreva. “We think that’s the wrong base case. Reserve replacement is getting harder, LNG exports are reshaping domestic balances, and AI-driven power demand is creating a new class of buyers willing to pay for firm supply. The forward curve still reflects yesterday’s market, not the market that’s emerging.”
Noreva’s forecasts combine transparent market fundamentals, AI-driven modeling, proprietary trade simulations, asset-level analysis and transactional data to evaluate how long-term changes in supply, exports and power demand could reshape U.S. natural gas markets.
“Drawing on 18 years of energy commodities data from our own trading and investing activities, we founded Noreva to deliver AI-driven analytics for traders, utilities, and investors.” said Izzet Bensusan, Founder of Noreva and CEO & Founder of Captona, an energy transition investment firm. “Our new natural gas coverage is a direct extension of that mission.”
The report highlights several trends that differ from prevailing market assumptions:
- Supply growth is becoming more constrained. Producers are spending roughly three times more than they did in 2021 to add reserves yet still are not replacing what they produce. As prime acreage becomes scarcer, the industry has spent nearly $300 billion on acquisitions since 2023—more than during the previous decade.
- LNG exports are driving demand growth. U.S. LNG export capacity is projected to increase by approximately 160% by 2030, adding roughly 25 Bcf/d of demand—about one-quarter of current U.S. production.
- Export demand is expected to remain strong. LNG facilities are projected to operate near full capacity across a broad range of gas prices, supported by global demand growth, coal-to-gas switching and energy security needs.
- AI is increasing demand for reliable power. Rapid data center growth is driving new demand for firm, gas-fired generation and renewed investment in U.S. power and natural gas infrastructure.
“Our natural gas forecasts are designed to help market participants look beyond today’s forward curve and evaluate how the market could evolve over the next decade,” Gardett added. “Our research suggests natural gas could shift from an abundant, discounted fuel to one that increasingly commands an energy security premium. For producers, investors and asset owners, the key question is whether the assumptions behind long-term capital decisions still reflect the realities taking shape.”
The full report and additional natural gas pricing forecasts are available on the Noreva platform.
About Noreva
Noreva is an AI-powered market intelligence platform for energy and commodities markets. By combining transparent fundamentals, AI-driven modeling and transactional insight, Noreva delivers clarity across the energy transition through data feeds, forecasts, reports and consulting. The platform empowers commodity producers, developers, asset owners and investors to value assets, settle deals, stress-test capital structures and build strategies with conviction. Learn more at www.noreva.ai/
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