Noreva Quoted On Tax Policy Implications for Renewables in 2026

What the S&P Global Market Intelligence coverage examined

The article asked how much of the announced US renewables build-out will actually get built now that the federal tax credit window is closing. It anchored that question in project-level data on the largest developers in the pipeline (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Dec 2025):

• The 10 largest owners of planned US utility-scale solar and wind projects intend to add roughly 104.8 GW of capacity through 2029: 67.8 GW of solar and 37.0 GW of wind.
• Construction must begin by July 4, 2026 for a project to qualify for the credits.
• A July 2026 US Department of the Interior memorandum functioned as a moratorium on solar projects requiring the agency’s approval.
• On November 22, the administration moved to halt five East Coast offshore wind projects.

Taken together, the coverage framed a build-out that is large on paper but increasingly exposed to a hard legislative and regulatory clock. That exposure tends to show up first in project timelines, then later in valuations.

Gardett’s read was that the disruption has been slower to surface than the pressure would suggest, but that is changing. Asked about the pace of project cancellations, he said: “We haven’t seen a wave of cancellations because no one wants to cancel before they have to, but I think there’s plenty of evidence that in the coming months we will see waves of cancellations.”

On whether the tax credit deadline could still be softened through the legislative process, he pointed to the Federal Highway Act reauthorization, due September 30, 2026, as a possible vehicle for changing permitting rules under the Federal Power Act: “From what I’ve been hearing over the past few weeks, people are saying this is the chance to actually make a legislative change.”

And on where capital is actually still moving under the deadline, Gardett described a shift toward the projects developers can get built in time: “We had a big infrastructure investor here who’s possibly our biggest client, and they said they are going full pedal to the metal on a distributed solar expansion and behind-the-meter gas because those are the two things they can get built.”

Gardett added that building off-grid, or moving money into existing assets, “can only go so far.”

Why the tax credit sunset matters for developers and asset owners

For the developers, asset owners, and investors Noreva serves, project cancellations feed directly into REC supply, merchant power revenue, and asset valuation. A 104.8 GW pipeline that gets trimmed by a hard deadline does not shrink evenly: solar and wind assets that miss the July 2026 construction-start window lose the credit-driven economics they were valued on, while the projects that do get built (increasingly distributed solar and behind-the-meter gas, per Gardett’s read of where capital is moving) reset the supply picture for renewable energy certificates and environmental attribute markets. Noreva’s work is to turn that reset into transaction-aligned forward curves rather than theoretical ones: valuation models that reflect which projects actually clear the deadline, and REC and environmental-attribute forecasts that price the resulting supply gap rather than the pipeline as announced.

The cancellation wave itself is a policy story. What Noreva models is the layer beneath it: the resulting REC scarcity, merchant repricing, and asset revaluation.