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Renewable Natural Gas (RNG): Market Data, Prices and Long-Term Forecasts

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is pipeline-quality methane produced by capturing and upgrading biogas from landfills, dairy and swine manure digesters, wastewater treatment plants and food waste. Chemically it is interchangeable with fossil natural gas; economically it is a different commodity, because most of its value comes from the environmental credits it earns when it displaces diesel or fossil gas: D3 RINs under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard, state Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits, and the Section 45Z tax credit.

Noreva provides RNG price data and long-term renewable natural gas forecasts: the value stack by feedstock and end market, D3 RIN and LCFS forward curves, and 25-year RNG forecasts across nine operating scenarios for developers, offtakers, lenders and investors. This page covers where RNG comes from, how it is priced, how many projects are operating in mid-2026 and what now constrains growth.

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604

Operating facilities in North America, July 2026

9

Operating scenarios in the 25-year model

99%

Share of 2024 cellulosic RINs from RNG

What is renewable natural gas, and where does it come from?

Biogas is the raw output of anaerobic digestion or landfill decomposition: roughly half methane, the rest carbon dioxide and trace contaminants. RNG is biogas that has been cleaned and upgraded to pipeline specification so it can be injected into the gas grid, compressed into CNG or liquefied into LNG. The feedstock decides both the volume a project can produce and, more importantly, its carbon intensity (CI) score, which sets how many credits each MMBtu earns.

RNG feedstocks and their credit profile

Feedstock

Typical project

Carbon-intensity profile

Credit eligibility

Landfill gas

Large sites, steady gas curve over decades

Well below petroleum diesel; positive CI

D3 RINs; LCFS credits; 45Z

Dairy and swine manure digesters

Clusters of farms feeding a shared upgrading hub

Negative CI in California, Oregon and Washington under avoided-methane accounting

D3 RINs; highest LCFS credits per MMBtu; 45Z

Wastewater treatment

Municipal plants, moderate volumes

Low, positive CI

D3 RINs; LCFS credits; 45Z

Food waste and organics

Stand-alone digesters near urban collection

Low, positive CI

D3 RINs; LCFS credits; 45Z

Agricultural residues and energy crops

Emerging; larger in Europe than in North America

Pathway-specific

Case by case

RNG, biogas and CNG are not the same product

Biogas is the unrefined gas used on site for heat or power. RNG is the upgraded, pipeline-quality product. CNG and LNG describe the physical form at the dispenser, whether the molecules are fossil or renewable. Under the RFS, RINs are generated when RNG is used as transportation fuel, and since January 1, 2025 EPA only allows RIN generation for RNG injected into a commercial pipeline system for that purpose, with the renewable attribute matched to the fuel through contracts rather than physical delivery. That book-and-claim logic is what lets a Midwest digester earn California LCFS credits without shipping a molecule west.

How is RNG priced? The RNG value stack

There is no single RNG price. A project’s revenue is a stack of the commodity gas price plus the credits its molecules earn in the market where they are dispensed, and each layer has its own benchmark, counterparty and risk. The table sets out the stack for RNG sold as vehicle fuel in the United States, with the most recent public reference points.

Illustrative arithmetic shows why the credit layers dominate: at roughly 13 RINs per MMBtu, every dollar on the D3 RIN price translates into about $13 per MMBtu of gross credit value before separation costs and timing, with RIN prices trading above $2 across the main codes in the first half of 2026 (EIA, June 2026), against pipeline gas priced in the low single digits. A negative-CI dairy pathway adds LCFS credits on top of that; a landfill pathway adds fewer. The consequence is that an RNG forecast is really three forecasts, gas, D3 RINs and LCFS credits, and their correlation matters as much as their levels. Noreva’s RIN coverage and LCFS coverage supply those layers; the RNG work combines them by pathway and market.

The RNG value stack for transportation fuel (reference points, 2026)

Layer

Set by

Reference point

What moves it

Commodity gas

Henry Hub and regional hub prices

Pipeline gas at the injection point

Gas fundamentals; usually the smallest layer

D3 RIN (federal RFS)

RIN market; EPA cellulosic volumes and waiver decisions

One RIN per 77,000 Btu, so roughly 13 RINs per MMBtu; each dollar on the D3 price is worth about $13 per MMBtu. EPA publishes the weekly price averages

Cellulosic RVO (1.36 billion RINs in 2026, 1.43 billion in 2027), waiver credits, RNG supply growth

LCFS credits (state)

California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico credit markets

California weekly average of $70.71 per credit in early March 2026 (CARB data via OPIS); credits per MMBtu scale with the gap between the pathway CI and the benchmark

Benchmark schedule, credit bank, pathway CI, verification timing

Section 45Z

Federal tax credit, in effect since January 2025 and extended through 2029

Paid to the producer, sized by CI

Treasury guidance, feedstock rules, project CI

Voluntary and utility demand

Gas utility RNG programs, corporate thermal decarbonization, hydrogen feedstock

Bilateral premiums to pipeline gas; no RINs or LCFS credits

Corporate targets, state gas utility mandates

How many RNG projects are operating in 2026, and what sets demand?

North America passed 600 operating RNG facilities in mid-2026: 604 in operation as of July 7, 2026, after crossing 300 in 2023, 400 in 2024 and 500 in 2025, with a further 162 under construction and 294 in planning, for a total slate of 1,060 projects against the industry’s target of 1,000 operating facilities by 2030 (RNG Coalition, July 7, 2026). The build rate has been roughly 100 facilities a year for three years.

On the demand side, the federal signal is the cellulosic biofuel volume: 1.36 billion RINs in 2026 and 1.43 billion in 2027 under EPA’s final rule of March 27, 2026, set at expected production rather than at an aspirational level. Because RNG generated 99% of cellulosic RINs in 2024 (EPA RIN generation data), the cellulosic RVO is in practice the federal demand curve for RNG used as vehicle fuel. For the feedstock side of that equation, what waste streams are worth and how their prices are set, see Noreva’s market view on forecasting prices in the waste-to-wealth energy market.

The market is small in energy terms and large in credit terms. Next to the US gas market RNG is a niche, but it supplies almost the entire D3 RIN pool and one of the largest credit streams in the California LCFS. That is why RNG developers watch EPA and CARB more closely than they watch Henry Hub.

What constrains RNG growth now?

For a decade the binding constraint was supply: not enough projects, not enough gas. By early 2026 that had changed. Accumulated tax credits and investor enthusiasm brought volumes to market faster than fueling infrastructure could absorb them, and uncommitted dispensing capacity for heavy-duty CNG and LNG fleets became scarce. Noreva’s January 2026 market view, Getting physical with RNG and CNG, argues that the path for physical dispensing now rivals regulatory demand in importance for RNG pricing, and it is the constraint Noreva’s nine-scenario, 25-year RNG model was built to test.

The largest landfills and the densest dairy clusters were developed first. Marginal projects are smaller, cost more per MMBtu and often carry a higher CI score, which means fewer LCFS credits per unit. Growth in facility count does not translate one for one into growth in credit-weighted supply.

Each credit layer has a clock. Section 45Z runs through 2029. EPA sets cellulosic volumes two years at a time and retains the waiver option. State rules on avoided-methane crediting for dairy projects are a long-dated variable in their own right: how long negative CI scores remain available decides whether dairy RNG keeps its premium over landfill RNG beyond 2030, and Noreva runs both cases. A long-term RNG forecast is, in large part, a forecast of how these policies are renewed.

LCFS credits are issued after quarterly reporting and third-party verification, and RIN generation depends on pipeline injection and contractual matching. Both create a lag between gas produced and cash received that lenders price as working-capital risk.

Noreva’s RNG coverage

RNG price indications built from their components (gas, D3 RINs, LCFS credits by program, 45Z) for landfill, dairy, wastewater and food-waste pathways, in California, Oregon, Washington and the emerging New Mexico market, and for voluntary and utility offtake outside the transportation programs.

The two credit layers are forecast in Noreva’s RIN and LCFS models and combined here, so that a project’s revenue forecast and the market forecasts behind it are consistent.

Long-term RNG forecasts that stress dispensing capacity, feedstock costs, policy renewal and credit prices together, producing a range rather than a point estimate. The scenarios are the basis for offtake pricing, debt sizing and acquisition analysis.

Revenue modeling for specific assets and contracts, including pathway certification choices, market routing between programs and the working-capital effects of credit timing, with an advisory layer for asset valuation and due diligence. Data is delivered through the Noreva Data Hub, API and CSV feeds as part of Noreva’s fuels coverage.

Who uses RNG price data and forecasts?

RNG forecasts: who uses what

Profile

Primary need

Noreva output

RNG developers (landfill, dairy, wastewater)

Which pathway to certify, which market to route gas to, what revenue to underwrite

Value-stack pricing by pathway and 25-year scenario forecasts

Offtakers, fuel marketers and fleets

Contract pricing against a moving credit stack; dispensing capacity planning

D3 and LCFS curves; scenario ranges on physical constraints

Gas utilities and corporate buyers

Premium to pipeline gas for voluntary and mandated RNG procurement

Voluntary-market price indications and supply outlook

Lenders and infrastructure investors

Base and downside revenue cases that survive policy sunsets

Low, base and high curves with policy scenarios

Traders and originators

Forward references for D3 RINs, LCFS credits and RNG offtake

Short-term forecasts and event-driven updates

Frequently asked questions: renewable natural gas

Noreva provides RNG price data built from the value stack (commodity gas, D3 RINs, LCFS credits and the 45Z credit) by feedstock pathway and end market, together with long-term forecasts out to 25 years across nine operating scenarios. The public components are published separately: EPA publishes weekly RIN prices, CARB publishes weekly and monthly LCFS credit prices, and gas hubs are quoted daily. No public source publishes an RNG price as such, which is why the stack has to be assembled and forecast.

Under EPA’s equivalence values, one RIN is generated per 77,000 Btu of renewable CNG or LNG, which works out to roughly 13 D3 RINs per MMBtu of RNG used as transportation fuel. In practical terms, every dollar on the D3 RIN price is worth about $13 per MMBtu of gross RIN value before separation costs and timing; EPA publishes the weekly volume-weighted D3 price averages, and Noreva maintains the continuous series and forward curve.

Cellulosic ethanol and cellulosic diesel never reached commercial scale, while landfill gas and digester projects could be built on existing waste streams with proven technology. EPA data show RNG generated 99% of cellulosic biofuel RINs in 2024, which makes the cellulosic volume obligation, 1.36 billion RINs in 2026, effectively a mandate for RNG as vehicle fuel.

Yes. RNG used as transportation fuel earns D3 RINs under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard and LCFS credits in the state where it is dispensed, because the two programs are separate instruments, one based on volume and one on carbon intensity. It can also qualify for the Section 45Z clean fuel production credit. The stack is the reason RNG projects are valued on credit prices rather than on gas prices.

Biogas is the raw gas from anaerobic digestion or landfill decomposition, roughly half methane, used on site for heat or power. Renewable natural gas is biogas that has been upgraded to pipeline quality, which allows it to be injected into the grid, matched to vehicle fuel by contract and credited under the RFS and LCFS programs.

604 facilities were operating as of July 7, 2026, with 162 under construction and 294 in planning, according to the RNG Coalition. The industry crossed 300 facilities in 2023, 400 in 2024 and 500 in 2025, and targets 1,000 operating facilities by 2030.

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Access Noreva’s RNG Forecasts

Noreva’s RNG datasets, value-stack pricing by pathway, D3 RIN and LCFS curves, 25-year forecasts across nine scenarios and project-level revenue analysis, are available through Noreva’s fuels pricing data feeds and its RINs and LCFS Merchant Curves. To see how they fit your project, offtake contract or investment case, book a demo with the Noreva team.