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Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs): Prices, D-Codes and Long-Term Forecasts

A Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is the tradable compliance credit of the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). One RIN is generated for every ethanol-equivalent gallon of qualifying renewable fuel produced or imported, travels with the fuel until it is blended, and is then separated and either retired by an obligated party or sold. RINs are sorted into D-codes by fuel category (D3 cellulosic, D4 biomass-based diesel, D5 advanced, D6 conventional) and each code trades at its own price.

Noreva provides historical RIN prices and long-term RIN price forecasts by D-code: short-term forecasts over 1 to 3 years and merchant curves out to 25 years, built from EPA volume scenarios, blending economics and the feedstock and policy stack that sits behind each category. This page explains how RIN demand is created, what EPA’s final 2026 to 2027 rule changed, where prices stand in 2026 and what to watch in small refinery exemptions, cellulosic waiver credits and the renewable natural gas supply that now produces almost every D3 RIN.

Access RIN Merchant Curves

$2.41

D4 biomass-based diesel RIN, June 4, 2026

26.81 bn

Total renewable fuel obligation, 2026

4

D-codes, each trading at its own price

1.5

Renewable diesel equivalence value from 2027

What is a RIN, and how does the Renewable Fuel Standard create demand for it?

The RFS requires refiners and importers of gasoline and diesel, the obligated parties, to show that a set volume of renewable fuel entered the US transportation fuel supply each year. EPA sets those Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) by rule, converts them into percentage standards, and each obligated party’s obligation is its petroleum volume multiplied by the percentage. Compliance is demonstrated by retiring RINs in EPA’s Moderated Transaction System (EMTS) after the compliance year closes.

Because RINs can be separated from the fuel and sold, the program creates a market: parties that blend more renewable fuel than their obligation sell surplus RINs to those that blend less. The RIN price is therefore the marginal cost of compliance, and it moves on every EPA rulemaking, court decision and shift in blending margins. For a primer on the program itself, see Noreva’s guide to what the Renewable Fuel Standard is and how it works.

D3, D4, D5 and D6: the four RIN categories

The categories nest. Cellulosic (D3) and biomass-based diesel (D4) RINs each count toward their own obligation and also toward the advanced and total obligations; a D5 RIN counts toward the advanced and total obligations; a D6 RIN counts only toward the total. That nesting sets the price hierarchy: D3 and D4 trade at or above D5, and D5 at or above D6, because a higher-category RIN can always do a lower category’s job. D3 and D4 are not substitutes for each other, since neither can cover the other’s specific obligation.

The equivalence value matters for producers: a gallon of renewable diesel currently generates 1.7 RINs, so RIN revenue per gallon is 1.7 times the D4 price. The final 2026 to 2027 rule lowers that to 1.5 from 2027, a 12% cut in RIN yield per gallon that does not show up in the headline volumes.

RIN categories under the Renewable Fuel Standard

D-code

Category

Minimum lifecycle GHG reduction

Typical fuels

Equivalence value (RINs generated)

D3

Cellulosic biofuel

60%

Renewable natural gas (as CNG/LNG), cellulosic ethanol

1.0 per 77,000 Btu of RNG; 1.0 for cellulosic ethanol

D4

Biomass-based diesel

50%

Biodiesel, renewable diesel, SAF from biomass-based diesel feedstocks

Biodiesel 1.5; renewable diesel 1.7 today, cut to 1.5 from January 1, 2027 (final 2026 to 2027 rule)

D5

Advanced biofuel

50%

Sugarcane ethanol, renewable naphtha, some RNG pathways

1.0 for ethanol; renewable naphtha 1.4 (unchanged in the 2026 to 2027 rule)

D6

Renewable fuel (conventional)

20%

Corn ethanol

1.0

What did EPA’s final 2026 to 2027 rule change?

EPA announced the final RFS volumes for 2026 and 2027 on March 27, 2026, published in the Federal Register on April 1, 2026. They are the highest volumes set under the program (American Farm Bureau Federation, May 5, 2026), and they landed well above the proposal that had already surprised the market in June 2025.

Three provisions sit behind the table. EPA reallocated 70% of the volumes exempted for small refineries in 2023 to 2025 into the 2026 and 2027 standards, adding roughly one billion RINs of effective demand in each year. It dropped the proposal to award only half a RIN to fuel made from imported feedstocks, while signaling that the measure returns for the 2028 compliance year. And it cut the equivalence values for renewable diesel and SAF to 1.5 RINs per gallon from January 1, 2027.

Noreva’s read when the proposal was released is in RINs Rise on Release of EPA Proposal (September 2025): the biomass-based diesel number was the surprise then, at 7.12 billion RINs for 2026, above what the market had expected. The final rule raised it again, by 24% to 8.86 billion before the reallocation of past exemptions and by 27% to 9.07 billion including it. That sequence, proposal above expectations and final above proposal, is the single largest driver of where D4 and D6 RINs trade today.

Final renewable volume obligations for 2026 and 2027, billion RINs (EPA final rule, March 27, 2026)

Category

2026

2027

Note

Cellulosic biofuel (D3)

1.36

1.43

Set at expected production; the 2025 obligation was partially waived in the same rule to match actual supply

Biomass-based diesel (D4)

9.07

9.20

8.86 and 8.95 before reallocation of small refinery exemptions; the June 2025 proposal carried 7.12 and 7.50

Advanced biofuel (D3 + D4 + D5)

10.82

10.98

11.10 and 11.32 after exemption reallocation

Total renewable fuel

26.81

27.02

Implied conventional volume (total less advanced) of 15.99 and 16.04; the statutory conventional ethanol volume is held at 15 billion gallons (American Farm Bureau Federation, May 5, 2026)

Where are RIN prices in 2026?

D4 biomass-based diesel RINs traded at $2.41 per RIN on June 4, 2026, close to the all-time highs set in 2021, and EIA attributes the rise in RIN prices primarily to the higher blending mandates, with elevated petroleum product prices making ethanol relatively more attractive to blend (EIA, Today in Energy, June 10, 2026). D6 ethanol RINs set a record above $2 per RIN in May 2026 (OPIS). D3 cellulosic RINs price off a different mechanism: their ceiling is set by the cellulosic waiver credit formula described below, and their floor by RNG production economics. EPA publishes weekly volume-weighted average prices for all four codes; Noreva maintains the continuous history and current marks by D-code.

A D4 RIN can satisfy the total obligation, so when the biomass-based diesel mandate pulls hard enough, obligated parties use surplus D4 RINs to cover conventional shortfalls and D6 floats up toward D4. The 2026 to 2027 volumes, which lift biomass-based diesel by more than a quarter against the June 2025 proposal while holding conventional ethanol at 15 billion gallons, are a textbook version of that squeeze: both codes moved toward record levels together in the first half of 2026. When D6 approaches the ethanol blending margin, the market also starts to price year-round E15 access as a release valve.

Cellulosic RINs have their own ceiling. When EPA projects a cellulosic shortfall, it can waive part of the volume and offer cellulosic waiver credits (CWCs) at a statutory formula price, the greater of $0.25 or $3.00 minus the wholesale gasoline price, in inflation-adjusted dollars. An obligated party can retire a CWC plus an advanced RIN instead of a D3 RIN, so the D3 price cannot stay above CWC plus D5 for long. The 2026 to 2027 rule set cellulosic volumes at expected production, which narrows the waiver case, and since renewable natural gas generated 99% of cellulosic RINs in 2024 (EPA data), D3 is in practice an RNG price signal: project completions, pipeline injection and dispensing capacity decide supply. The distance between where D3 trades and where it would clear if EPA let the category float rather than waive it is the central question in cellulosic RIN forecasting, and the one Noreva’s D3 scenarios are built around.

Refineries with average crude throughput at or below 75,000 barrels per day can petition EPA for an exemption from their obligation on grounds of disproportionate economic hardship. Every exempted gallon is demand removed from the RIN market unless EPA reallocates it, and the backlog has been large: 169 petitions were pending when the 2026 to 2027 proposal was released (Noreva, September 2025). The final rule answered with the 70% reallocation described above, which converts past exemptions into present demand. How EPA handles the 2026 and 2027 petitions themselves, and whether reallocation survives in court, is the main source of near-term variance in Noreva’s D4 and D6 scenarios.

RIN price drivers by category

Driver

Mechanism

Most exposed codes

RVO levels and percentage standards

Set annual demand; the 2026 to 2027 rule raised them to record levels

D4, D6

Small refinery exemptions

Remove obligated volume; reallocation puts it back on everyone else

D4, D6

Feedstock costs and Section 45Z

Change the margin renewable diesel and biodiesel producers need

D4

Import treatment

Half-RIN rule for foreign feedstocks deferred to 2028; would cut supply of D4 RINs from imports

D4

Equivalence values

Renewable diesel and SAF fall to 1.5 RINs per gallon in 2027

D4

Ethanol blend economics and E15

Blend margin and summer E15 access set the D6 floor and ceiling

D6

RNG supply and cellulosic waivers

Project pipeline and EPA waiver decisions set D3 relative to CWC plus D5

D3, D5

Litigation and rulemaking calendar

Court challenges to RVOs and exemption decisions reprice the curve

All

Noreva’s RIN coverage

Price history for D3, D4, D5 and D6 RINs, with current marks, spreads between codes and the implied cellulosic waiver credit ceiling. The history is the calibration base for every forecast.

Short-term RIN price forecasts by D-code for compliance planning and trading, and long-term merchant curves for project finance and valuation. Each curve carries low, base and high scenarios built on explicit RVO paths, exemption outcomes, feedstock costs and the 2027 equivalence change.

Noreva rebuilds the supply-demand balance for each category under alternative EPA decisions: volumes, waivers, reallocation, import rules. The output is a distribution of prices rather than a single line, which is what a credit committee or a risk desk needs.

RINs rarely stand alone. The same gallon earns LCFS credits in California, Oregon or Washington and a Section 45Z tax credit, and the same MMBtu of RNG earns D3 RINs and state credits together. Noreva models the stack in one framework so that a producer’s revenue line and an obligated party’s compliance cost are consistent.

Data through the Noreva Data Hub, API and CSV feeds, plus an advisory layer for asset valuation, offtake and hedging. Noreva’s RIN work sits inside its broader fuels coverage, alongside power, capacity and environmental attributes.

Who uses RIN forecasts?

RIN forecasts: who uses what

Profile

Primary need

Noreva output

Refiners and importers (obligated parties)

Compliance cost budgeting, hedge timing, exemption strategy

D4 and D6 forecasts with exemption and reallocation scenarios

Biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF producers

RIN revenue per gallon, including the 2027 equivalence change, stacked with LCFS and 45Z

D4 curves and cross-program revenue stacks

RNG developers and offtakers

D3 price path and waiver risk over a project's life

D3 merchant curves and cellulosic waiver analysis

Traders and originators

Forward references for spot, strip and cross-code spread positions

Short-term forecasts and event-driven updates

Lenders and investors

Base and downside RIN assumptions for debt sizing and acquisitions

25-year curves with low, base and high scenarios

Frequently asked questions: RINs

Noreva produces long-term RIN price forecasts by D-code (D3, D4, D5 and D6) with short-term forecasts over 1 to 3 years and merchant curves out to 25 years, built on EPA volume scenarios, blending economics and feedstock and policy analysis. Price reporting agencies publish daily spot assessments and short-dated forwards, EPA publishes weekly volume-weighted average prices, and CME lists D4 and D6 futures settled on OPIS assessments; none of those extend to the multi-year horizon that project finance and valuation require.

The codes identify the fuel category and its minimum lifecycle greenhouse gas reduction: D3 cellulosic biofuel (60%, mostly renewable natural gas), D4 biomass-based diesel (50%, biodiesel and renewable diesel), D5 advanced biofuel (50%, for example sugarcane ethanol) and D6 conventional renewable fuel (20%, corn ethanol). Higher categories can be used to meet lower-category obligations, which is why D3 and D4 RINs trade at or above D5 and D6.

EPA publishes weekly volume-weighted average prices for separated RINs by D-code, drawn from EMTS transactions, along with transaction volumes. Noreva provides the same history as a cleaned, continuous series together with current marks and forward forecasts, so that a price today can be read against a forecast path.

A gallon of renewable diesel generates 1.7 D4 RINs today. EPA’s final 2026 to 2027 rule lowers the equivalence value for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel to 1.5 RINs per gallon from January 1, 2027. Biodiesel generates 1.5, and corn ethanol 1.0.

A cellulosic waiver credit (CWC) is a compliance instrument EPA may offer when it waives part of the cellulosic biofuel volume. Obligated parties can retire a CWC plus an advanced (D5) RIN instead of a D3 RIN. Its price follows a statutory formula, the greater of $0.25 or $3.00 minus the wholesale gasoline price, inflation-adjusted, which sets a ceiling on D3 RIN prices equal to the CWC price plus a D5 RIN.

Exemptions remove obligated volume from the market, which lowers RIN demand and prices unless EPA reallocates the exempted volume to other obligated parties. In the final 2026 to 2027 rule EPA reallocated 70% of the volumes exempted for 2023 to 2025, adding about one billion RINs of demand in each year, which is one reason D4 and D6 RINs moved toward record levels in the first half of 2026.

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Access Noreva’s RIN Forecasts

Noreva’s RIN datasets, historical prices by D-code, short-term forecasts, 25-year merchant curves and RVO scenario analysis, are available through Noreva’s RINs Merchant Curves and its fuels pricing data feeds, alongside Noreva’s LCFS and RNG coverage. To see how they fit your compliance plan, production economics or investment case, book a demo with the Noreva team.