The latest 25-year PCC1 forecast from Noreva reflects a recalibration in development expectations.
The CAISO interconnection queue has shrunk substantially, with active solar volumes down to about 22 gigawatts and wind now contributing less than one. The cancellation of Idaho’s Lava Ridge project and continued permitting delays underscore a constrained supply outlook.
Merchant PCC1 prices remain elevated through the 2030s before gradually easing as new capacity comes online.
As RPS obligations level off, compliance growth slows, tempering demand expansion and contributing to the flattening seen toward the back of the curve. The result is a market that remains short and increasingly shaped by realism rather than ambition.
