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Renewable Fuels & RINs Market Insights

Renewable fuels sit at the heart of the U.S. transportation fuels system, shaping both environmental policy and market economics. At the center of this compliance market ecosystem are “D codes” including D3 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), credits tied to cellulosic biofuels under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).

At Noreva, we blend AI-powered modeling with fundamentals-first analysis to provide clarity in this fast-moving market. Our approach captures the true interplay between supply, demand, capital markets and regulation, helping stakeholders make confident decisions on pricing, compliance, and investment.

Fuels Market Data Coverage

Noreva provides structured datasets covering D3 RINs, renewable natural gas, cellulosic ethanol, LCFS credits, and compliance mechanisms such as waiver credits. Data includes historical prices, forecast curves, regulatory volume targets, and supply-demand balances.

What Are D3 RINs?

A D3 RIN is a tradable credit issued for every gallon-equivalent of cellulosic biofuel produced. Unlike conventional biofuels, these must demonstrate at least a 60% reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum fuels. Qualifying fuels include:

  • Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) from landfills or digesters.
  • Cellulosic ethanol, derived from non-food plant biomass.
  • Cellulosic diesel from lignin-rich feedstocks.

These credits can be sold independently or bundled with the fuel itself, giving flexibility to both producers and compliance buyers.

Why They Matter

D3 RINs play a dual role: ensuring compliance under federal law while driving capital toward low-carbon fuels. They are more than accounting tools – they are market signals that steer billions in investment toward infrastructure like landfill gas projects, digesters, and advanced ethanol plants, all of which ultimately influence capacity market dynamics through generation adequacy and resource planning.

Because RNG accounts for about 95% of supply, the growth or slowdown of RNG projects directly shapes pricing. Meanwhile, EPA volume targets determine annual demand, making this a space where policy and market fundamentals are inseparable.

For market participants, these signals inform hedging strategies, compliance planning, and long-term energy transition strategies. Clients use Noreva’s fuels datasets to hedge RINs exposure, align procurement with EPA targets, and plan multi-year transition strategies under federal and state greenhouse gas emissions frameworks.

While D3 RINs and LCFS credits can overlap through shared project eligibility, they operate under separate compliance systems, the federal RFS and state-level LCFS programs. Noreva models each independently while quantifying potential “stacked” value across programs for qualifying projects.

Key Insights

RNG Dominance

~95% of all D3 RINs come from RNG, making landfill and digester projects the market’s backbone.

Price Volatility

D3 RIN values are influenced by EPA mandates and project completions. While independent, state-level LCFS programs can create secondary price correlations for RNG-based fuels participating in both systems.

Market Drivers

Shifting RVO targets set by the EPA create unique supply and demand fundamentals, mandating refiners or importers to purchase and then retire credits.

Policy Uncertainty

EPA obligations can shift quickly with the political climate, creating uncertainty in market dynamics and compliance planning.

Market Fundamentals

At its core, the D3 RIN market is defined by the balance between supply, compliance obligations, and federal/state incentives. Understanding this framework is essential for market participants.

Compliance Rules

  • Obligated parties: Refiners and fuel importers.
  • Annual EPA targets: Specific volume requirements updated each year.
  • Flexibility mechanisms: When D3 RIN supply is short, obligated parties may use Cellulosic Waiver Credits (CWCs) paired with D4 RINs to meet compliance obligations.
  • Verification: Every transaction tracked via the EPA’s Moderated Transaction System (EMTS) to prevent double counting.

Supply Drivers

  • RNG growth: Landfill and digester capacity expansions.
  • Feedstock availability: Agricultural residues and municipal waste streams.
  • Project completions: Large new RNG facilities in 2025–2026 expected to boost supply.
  • Policy incentives: LCFS credits and state-level programs improving project economics.

Demand Drivers

  • EPA mandates: Core driver of demand through the RFS.
  • Obligated parties: Compliance pressure on refiners/importers.
  • Substitution economics: High D3 prices incentivize use of CWC+D5 alternatives.
  • Stacked credits: LCFS eligibility boosts the value proposition of D3 fuels.

Pricing Outlook & Merchant Curves

Noreva approaches renewable fuel markets with a long-term equilibrium perspective, moving beyond short-term noise to reveal structural price dynamics.

Our merchant curves are designed to capture the interplay between supply, demand, and policy frameworks. Each curve reflects how EPA mandates, RNG project pipelines, and state-level LCFS incentives reshape value over time. Unlike static forecasts, these curves integrate real trading data, scenario analysis, and policy-driven stress testing, ensuring that projections remain credible with lenders, boards, and compliance officers.

For stakeholders, this means a clearer roadmap: understanding not just where prices stand today, but how they may evolve through multiple horizons, from procurement windows to 20-year investment strategies.

How Noreva Forecasts Renewable Fuels Prices?

Noreva uses AI-driven modeling, fundamentals-first analysis, and scenario stress testing to produce short- and long-term merchant curves. This includes both renewable fuels and attribute-linked markets.

LCFS & Clean Fuels Tracking

LCFS and RIN markets are modeled independently at Noreva, reflecting their distinct regulatory frameworks. Our analytics also capture areas of overlap, where fuels eligible under both systems can stack credits, quantifying combined value and policy exposure across California, Oregon, Washington, and emerging state programs.

This enables clients to quantify LCFS value stacking and anticipate compliance costs under evolving state programs.

Historical and forecasted LCFS credit prices are available through Noreva’s Data Hub, alongside renewable fuel datasets and scenario-based merchant curves.

Providers & Differentiation

While several analytics firms publish RINs data, Noreva stands out for its AI-enhanced, fundamentals-based, and trade-informed merchant curves. Our forecasts are lender-credible, scenario-tested, and designed for compliance and investment decisions—not just short-term trading views.

Upcoming Developments

The next 24 months represent a pivotal phase for the D3 RIN market. Several forces converge to shape a volatile outlook:

  • RNG Capacity Growth: Multiple large-scale landfill and digester projects scheduled for 2025–2026 will expand supply, testing price resilience.
  • EPA’s Next Mandate: The upcoming cellulosic biofuel target will set the compliance tone for refiners and importers, reinforcing demand outlooks.
  • Regulatory Outlook: Ongoing policy reviews and potential legal challenges to the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard framework could influence future rulemaking timelines and compliance requirements.
  • State Program Expansions: Emerging LCFS-style initiatives at the state level are expected to enhance project economics independently of the federal RFS, with potential for value stacking where eligible fuels participate in both programs.

Together, these developments underscore why flexibility and foresight are critical: markets can pivot rapidly depending on policy, infrastructure, or regulatory outcomes, and only a data-grounded, adaptive forecast can keep decision-makers ahead of the curve.

“As renewable fuels move from mandates to markets, each molecule carries layered value tied to its carbon intensity. The advantage lies with those who can connect compliance, data, and monetization into a single, transparent framework - grounded in pricing data and forward market views that reveal where real value will emerge.”

Beste ElverdiSenior Associate - RECs & Renewable Fuels

Frequently asked questions

What data is available for renewable fuels markets?

Noreva provides historical price datasets, current market pricing & long-term merchant curves for RINs, LCFS and RNG markets. Noreva’s curves provide transparency into the underlying variables like supply-demand balances, EPA targets and other market inputs.

How can fuels data support hedging and transition planning?

Forecasts inform procurement windows, valuation models, and long-term decarbonization pathways, helping firms hedge exposure and align with transition goals.

What providers produce long-term RINs forecasts?

While several analytics providers cover RINs, Noreva specializes in AI-enhanced long-term merchant curves that are lender-ready and tailored for compliance and investment decisions.

Where can I find historical and forecasted LCFS prices?

Noreva offers historical LCFS pricing history and scenario-based forecasts. Their AI enhanced forecast are fundamentals based, backed by real-trade based insights.

What is a D3 RIN, and why is it important?

A D3 RIN is a compliance credit for cellulosic biofuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard. It represents proof that a gallon of qualifying renewable fuel (like RNG or cellulosic ethanol) has been produced. They are critical because refiners and importers must retire them annually to meet EPA mandates.

Why does renewable natural gas (RNG) dominate the D3 RIN market?

Around 95% of D3 RINs come from RNG generated via landfill and digester gas. RNG projects are scalable given the abundance, and low-cost, of organic waste used. D3 RINs can also be paired with state-level programs like LCFS, making the projects even more lucrative.

How does Noreva forecast renewable fuel prices?

Noreva combines fundamental analysis, trading data, and AI-driven modeling to produce merchant curves. These curves reflect long-term pricing across multiple scenarios, updated semi-annually. Short-term forecasts capture price reactions to policy announcements and project completions (1–3 years), while long-term scenarios (up to 25 years) model structural equilibrium under multiple policy and supply pathways.

What risks could impact the renewable fuels market?

Key risks include EPA mandate changes, litigation over the RFS reset authority, project delays, and variability in LCFS-style programs across states. Each factor can shift supply-demand balance and pricing.

How do clients use Noreva’s renewable fuel insights?

Clients rely on forecasts for hedging strategies, procurement planning, project financing, compliance management, and valuation exercises. In short, Noreva translates volatile market signals into actionable intelligence.

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