MISO Capacity Market: Forecasts, PRA Insights & Merchant Curves

Last updated: April 2026. Reviewed quarterly alongside Noreva’s merchant curve releases.

MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) operates one of the largest electricity markets in North America, spanning a footprint from the Canadian border to the Gulf Coast across 15 US states and the Canadian province of Manitoba. Its capacity market, structured around the Planning Resource Auction (PRA), has undergone significant change in recent years, shifting from a single annual construct to a four-season framework that reflects distinct reliability conditions across the year. For developers, investors, lenders, and risk teams active in MISO, capacity revenues are an increasingly important component of asset economics. Noreva provides investment-grade MISO capacity forecasts, including long-term merchant curves with seasonal coverage across MISO North andMISO South for every season, and the broader footprint.

How MISO’s Capacity Market Works

MISO’s Planning Resource Auction determines capacity clearing prices for each Local Resource Zone (LRZ) across the footprint. The PRA is held annually for the following planning year, and under the current framework, pricing is determined separately for the four seasonal capability periods: summer, fall, winter, and spring. MISO is now a seasonal capacity market rather than a single-price annual construct. Key structural features of MISO’s capacity market include:

Seasonal Capacity

As of Planning Year 2023/24, MISO moved to a four-season construct. This recognizes that reliability risks differ across the year: summer peak demand, winter gas and weather risk, and shoulder-season outage and flexibility dynamics all matter separately. Noreva’s coverage reflects all four seasonal products, including MISO summer capacity, MISO winter capacity, MISO fall capacity, and MISO spring capacity.

Local Resource Zones (LRZs)

MISO is divided into 10 LRZs, each with its own Local Clearing Requirement (LCR). Resources in import-constrained LRZs can command locational capacity premiums. LRZ 4 (Illinois/Chicago), LRZ 6 (Indiana), and several MISO South zones have historically cleared above the footprint average, with the gap widening as MISO South thermal retirements accelerate.

Accreditation Framework

MISO assigns capacity credit through an accreditation methodology. Thermal generators are credited based on performance, while wind, solar, and storage are increasingly shaped by ELCC-based accreditation, which is central to revenue modeling for variable and storage resources. MISO seasonal capacity data is tracked under the MISO seasonal capacity framework.

Capacity Import Limits

Inter-zonal transmission constraints limit the ability of lower-cost capacity from one LRZ to satisfy another zone’s reliability requirement. These constraints are particularly relevant between MISO North and MISO South and along the MISO-PJM seam.

MISO Four-Season Capacity: Overview

Season

Period

Primary Reliability Challenge

Key Resource Type

Summer

June to August

Heat-driven peak demand, AC load, data centers

Peaking capacity, demand response

Fall

September to November

Shoulder season, maintenance outage window

Flexible baseload, storage

Winter

December to February

Polar vortex risk, gas supply constraints

Winterized thermal, dual-fuel

Spring

March to May

Moderate demand, wind surplus

Flexible resources, storage

Why Did MISO Move to a Four-Season Capacity Market?

MISO’s move to a four-season construct reflects a structural reality: reliability challenges across the footprint are not limited to summer. The legacy annual PRA did not adequately capture the very different risk patterns associated with heat waves, winter cold events, shoulder-season maintenance windows, and seasonal resource performance. The four-season shift produces more accurate revenue signals and sharper incentives for seasonally firm resources.

Summer peak demand across the MISO footprint, driven by air-conditioning load and rising industrial demand, has historically defined the primary capacity adequacy challenge. MISO’s summer reserve margin has tightened as coal retirements remove dispatchable megawatts without equivalent replacement from firm resources. The broader dispatchable-capacity dynamic is examined in Dispatchable Dominance in SPP and MISO.

Polar vortex events expose MISO’s dependence on natural gas generation, especially when gas demand for heating competes with power generation. Winter capacity has become more valuable as cold-weather reliability risk has become more visible across the Midwest. Winter is now an increasingly important pricing season, not a secondary adequacy period.

MISO’s fleet has undergone one of the most significant coal-retirement waves in the country. Environmental compliance costs, economics, and policy shifts have pushed substantial dispatchable capacity out of the stack. This tightening of firm supply is a major driver of higher clearing prices across MISO seasons, especially where local constraints are binding.

MISO hosts one of the largest wind fleets in North America. As wind and solar penetration rise, the marginal ELCC contribution of new variable resources declines. That means each additional MW of wind or solar adds less adequacy value than earlier additions, which suppresses per-MW capacity revenues for new renewable entrants while increasing the relative value of dispatchable resources.

Noreva’s MISO Capacity Coverage

Noreva provides forward-looking price forecasts for all upcoming MISO seasons: summer, fall, winter, and spring, across all 10 LRZs. These forecasts are calibrated for project finance integration and built around retirement schedules, renewable entry, ELCC updates, and market design evolution. The underlying methodology is detailed on our How It Works page.

MISO’s 10 LRZs each carry their own Local Clearing Requirement, so zonal capacity prices can diverge materially from the footprint average. Resources located inside an import-constrained LRZ effectively earn the locational premium (the firm capacity equivalent), while resources in less constrained zones earn the broader deliverable capacity price. Noreva prices all 10 LRZs separately, so that users can track forward zonal spreads.

Since MISO’s transition to the four-season construct in Planning Year 2025/26, seasonal clearing prices have diverged sharply by zone and season. Recent PRA outcomes illustrate the structural tightness, especially for summer and the more constrained LRZs:

MISO PRA Clearing Prices, Selected Seasons ($/MW-day)

Planning Year 2024/2025

Season

North / Central (Z1–7)

South (Z8–10)

Subregional Split?

Summer

$30.00

$30.00

Uniform

Fall

$15.00

$719.81

Split

Winter

$0.75

$0.75

Uniform

Spring

$34.10

$719.81

Split

Planning Year 2025/2026

Season

North / Central (Z1–7)

South (Z8–10)

Subregional Split?

Summer

$666.50

$666.50

Uniform

Fall

$91.60

$74.09

Split

Winter

$33.20

$33.20

Uniform

Spring

$69.88

$69.88

Uniform

Planning Year 2026/2027

Season

North / Central (Z1–7)

South (Z8–10)

Subregional Split?

Summer

$424.30

$384.10 (Z8, Z10) $412.10 (Z9)

Split

Fall

$33.92

$33.92

Uniform

Winter

$35.97

$35.97

Uniform

Spring

$7.61

$7.61

Uniform

Noreva’s MISO capacity merchant curves extend 25 years and are intended for infrastructure underwriting, long-dated PPA structuring, and asset valuation. These curves reflect expected shifts in capacity demand, accreditation, as well as the MISO resource mix, including coal retirement, renewable entry, and potential new gas and storage development. The broader economics behind coal’s exit from the stack are explored in Why Keeping Coal Online Will Be So Expensive.

Noreva provides separate price series for each of MISO’s four seasonal capability periods. This seasonal granularity is essential for accurate valuation of assets with different seasonal output or accreditation profiles, especially wind, storage, and flexible thermal resources.

MISO’s ELCC accreditation methodology is a critical input to revenue modeling for wind, solar, and storage. Noreva’s datasets include technology-specific ELCC rates by season, enabling more accurate capacity revenue projections. The broader valuation implications of shifting ELCC scores are examined in The ELCC Crunch: How Shifting Capacity Values Are Redefining Asset Valuation.

Why Noreva for MISO Capacity Forecasting

Noreva combines fundamentals-based modeling with trader-informed pricing inputs, a methodology no other MISO capacity data provider offers at this depth. Learn more about Noreva and the broader capacity services we offer. Our MISO coverage is built around five differentiators:

  • Fundamentals + transactional insights: We pair our in-house supply, demand, and policy modeling with live broker inputs and bilateral transaction data sourced through our sister company Karbone, which has 15+ years of capacity market trading and origination experience across MISO North and South. Most data providers rely on fundamentals alone; Noreva ties MISO forecasts to where PRA outcomes, bilateral trades, and seasonal products are actually transacting.
  • Low / Base / High scenarios: Every MISO forecast ships with three calibrated scenarios, enabling risk teams, lenders, and developers to stress-test assumptions on coal retirement pace, wind and solar entry, ELCC dilution, and the four-season clearing dynamics, and more without re-running the model.
  • Full data stack through Noreva Data Hub and API: Daily marks, weekly forwards, four-season splits, Hub and LRZ-level pricing, and 25-year merchant curves, all accessible through the Noreva Data Hub or directly via API for integration into project finance models, DSCR engines, and portfolio risk systems.
  • Advisory layer: Beyond data, Noreva supports clients with asset valuation reports, pro-forma reviews, retirement timing analysis, PPA structuring support, origination advisory, and project benchmarking, drawing on Karbone’s direct MISO market experience.

Use Cases: Who Relies on NYISO Capacity Forecasts

MISO’s wind-rich footprint hosts a significant share of US onshore wind development. Seasonal capacity revenues can be a meaningful supplement to energy revenues, and Noreva’s ELCC-adjusted seasonal forecasts help developers size merchant exposure and stress-test project assumptions.

Coal plant retirement timing is directly influenced by capacity revenues. A plant that earns above-cost capacity payments may remain economic for reliability reasons even when its energy margins are thin. Noreva’s MISO forecasts support retirement timing and asset disposition strategy, particularly for winter-sensitive dispatchable assets.

Seasonal MISO capacity revenues require more granular modeling than the legacy annual-price framework allowed. Lenders reviewing DSCR models need a defensible seasonal price deck across all four capability periods. The rigor of capacity price forecasting is central to that work, and Noreva’s four-season curves are a direct fit for it.

Portfolio stress testing under low, base, and high capacity-price scenarios requires seasonal outputs across LRZs. Noreva’s MISO datasets are structured to support direct integration into internal risk-management frameworks.

MISO Capacity Market: Key Concepts

How MISO Compares to Other US Capacity Markets

US Capacity Market Design Comparison

Market

Auction Format

Procurement Horizon

Commitment Period

Locational Granularity

Performance Obligation

CAISO

Bilateral (no centralized auction)

Annual + monthly + 3 to 5yr (MTR)

Annual + monthly

System / Local RA zones

RA showings

ISO-NE

Descending clock, transitioning to prompt/seasonal at FCA 19

~3 years forward currently; prompt from FCA 19

Annual currently; seasonal from FCA 19

System + CT, ME zones

Pay-for-Performance

MISO

Bilateral + seasonal PRA

Annual

Four seasons

10 Local Resource Zones

ELCC + accreditation

NYISO

Spot + strip + bilateral

Seasonal, Monthly, Monthly-Spot

Summer / Winter capability periods

NYC, LHV, LI, ROS localities

UCAP derating + ICAP demand curve

PJM

Sealed-bid (BRA) + bilateral

~3 years forward

Annual

RTO + LDAs

Capacity Performance

SPP

Bilateral

Annual

Summer + Winter

System + sub-zones

ELCC & PBA

For broader market commentary across all US capacity markets, see Noreva’s Market Views.

Frequently Asked Questions: MISO Capacity

The PRA is MISO’s annual capacity auction for the following planning year. It determines the clearing price for each Local Resource Zone and each seasonal capability period, providing a forward revenue signal for generators and storage resources across the footprint.

The legacy single annual PRA did not capture the distinct reliability challenges of different seasons, especially winter polar vortex risk and summer peak-demand tightness. The four-season construct provides more accurate revenue signals and better incentives for seasonally firm resources.

Wind resources in MISO receive capacity credit based on ELCC, which measures their probabilistic contribution to peak reliability. As wind penetration grows, the marginal ELCC of new wind declines, reducing expected per-MW capacity revenues for new entrants.

LRZ 7 (Lower Michigan), LRZ 4 (Illinois/Chicago) and LRZ 6 (have historically been among the more import-constrained zones, and MISO South zones have also shown tightness as thermal retirements accelerate.

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Access Noreva’s MISO Capacity Forecasts

Noreva’s MISO capacity datasets cover all four seasons, all 10 LRZs, and ELCC-adjusted technology-specific capacity credits, structured for direct use in project finance, asset valuation, retirement strategy, and risk-management workflows.

To learn how Noreva’s MISO capacity forecasts can support your next underwriting case, acquisition, or portfolio decision, book a demo with our team.