Noreva’s AI-enabled price forecasting models are signaling a significant shift in energy markets.
This month’s “Whiplash Refresh” report unveils a groundbreaking path for US energy, pointing to substantial changes in the coming months, years, and decades.
Early indications from Noreva’s proprietary modeling suggest that a yearlong boom in natural gas power projects and related infrastructure is moving beyond mere headline announcements and into physical and financial markets.
Relief May Be in Sight for Electricity Ratepayers and Stressed Power Markets:
Power markets in the US have faced successive years of price inflation and upside volatility, increasingly due to surging capacity costs.
Noreva’s latest SPP and MISO capacity merchant curve updates reveal that the addition of significant new natural gas generation could trigger a sweeping reversal of this trend.
This influx of gas-backed capacity is projected to stabilize price outlooks through 2050 across multiple scenarios, offering relief to electricity ratepayers and power markets. With high capacity prices baked into many financing assumptions, market participants may need to recalibrate their capital planning.
Better Battery Financing Means Better Baseload Generation:
Utility-scale batteries are no longer a nascent technology in the US power mix; they are increasingly buffering the impact of demand swings and intermittent supply from solar and wind growth across every market.
Historically, the limited operational history of batteries has posed challenges for infrastructure financing.
However, Noreva’s unique insights into battery financing economics, now incorporated into the latest merchant curve model updates, contribute to a counter-consensus forecast for a less volatile capacity market future.
This indicates that improved financing mechanisms will enable batteries to play a more robust role in providing stable baseload generation even where they only shave the peaks and valleys..
Moving Electrons and Fuels Matters Most Across the US:
While distributed energy often captures significant attention, addressing energy shortfalls at scale still necessitates the development of large infrastructure.
The “revenge” of the hub and spoke model in 2025 underscores the need for more wires to carry electrons and more pipelines for carrying fuels, primarily natural gas.
In regions heavily reliant on power or fuel imports, Noreva’s models demonstrate a high correlation between energy attribute price inflation and import dependency over the coming decades. Regions with high import dependency like NEPool can expect higher prices for longer.
Price stability remains a function of infrastructure availability, a lesson US energy markets are learning all over again.
Despite being sometimes tarred as “ESG,” these attributes ultimately play a central role in long-term resource planning across decades, indicating a strong potential for recovery.
