Frequently asked questions

Capacity markets secure future reliability by ensuring enough resources are available at peak times, while power markets cover real-time or day-ahead energy needs.

Because lenders and boards require credible forward views of future revenue streams. Reliable forecasts can make or break project approvals.

By blending fundamentals, regulatory changes, and trading dynamics with AI-powered scenario testing — every forecast is anchored in real market signals.

Noreva covers all major US ISOs/RTOs, including PJM, CAOSO, MISO, NYISO, ISO-NE, and SPP, with seasonal and regional splits.

They inform bid strategies, hedge timing, asset development plans, and valuations, turning uncertainty into measurable risk.

By combining fundamentals, policy shifts, and traded data, Noreva models forward auction clearing prices under multiple scenarios.

Noreva provides historical price datasets, current market pricing & long-term merchant curves for RINs, LCFS and RNG markets. Noreva’s curves provide transparency into the underlying variables like supply-demand balances, EPA targets and other market inputs.

Forecasts inform procurement windows, valuation models, and long-term decarbonization pathways, helping firms hedge exposure and align with transition goals.

While several analytics providers cover RINs, Noreva specializes in AI-enhanced long-term merchant curves that are lender-ready and tailored for compliance and investment decisions.

Noreva offers historical LCFS pricing history and scenario-based forecasts. Their AI enhanced forecast are fundamentals based, backed by real-trade based insights.

A D3 RIN is a compliance credit for cellulosic biofuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard. It represents proof that a gallon of qualifying renewable fuel (like RNG or cellulosic ethanol) has been produced. They are critical because refiners and importers must retire them annually to meet EPA mandates.

Around 95% of D3 RINs come from RNG generated via landfill and digester gas. RNG projects are scalable given the abundance, and low-cost, of organic waste used. D3 RINs can also be paired with state-level programs like LCFS, making the projects even more lucrative.

Noreva combines fundamental analysis, trading data, and AI-driven modeling to produce merchant curves. These curves reflect long-term pricing across multiple scenarios, updated semi-annually. Short-term forecasts capture price reactions to policy announcements and project completions (1–3 years), while long-term scenarios (up to 25 years) model structural equilibrium under multiple policy and supply pathways.

Key risks include EPA mandate changes, litigation over the RFS reset authority, project delays, and variability in LCFS-style programs across states. Each factor can shift supply-demand balance and pricing.

Clients rely on forecasts for hedging strategies, procurement planning, project financing, compliance management, and valuation exercises. In short, Noreva translates volatile market signals into actionable intelligence.

Compliance RECs are required by state-level RPS programs, while voluntary RECs are purchased by corporates or institutions to meet sustainability goals outside of legal mandates.

Because they are valid in three of the strictest RPS jurisdictions (NJ, MD, PA), where demand is high and supply is structurally constrained. That scarcity drives premium pricing.

Offshore wind could be a critical long-term swing factor. If buildouts meet targets, supply relief could stabilize pricing. If delays persist, REC scarcity and premiums will remain.

Data centers, especially in Virginia and Maryland, significantly increase electricity demand. This accelerates REC consumption and tightens the supply-demand balance.

Noreva performs semi-annual full model updates, with ongoing real-time adjustments to reflect regulatory shifts, interconnection progress, and market volatility.

Companies can anticipate compliance costs by using Noreva’s REC merchant curves, which model supply, demand, and policy impacts across PJM. These forecasts show how REC prices are likely to evolve in both the near term and over the next 25 years. By aligning procurement strategies with forecasted REC price trends, companies can budget more accurately, optimize hedging, and ensure compliance obligations are met at the lowest achievable cost or produced RECs are sold at the most advantageous level.

Noreva provides nationwide coverage across both compliance and voluntary REC markets, offering a unified analytical framework for renewable attributes in the U.S.

Our datasets span all major compliance regions — including PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, CAISO, and MISO — as well as emerging jurisdictions within SPP, ERCOT, and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC).

In addition, Noreva tracks CRS-listed and Green-e certified voluntary RECs, reflecting corporate and institutional procurement trends at the national level.

This comprehensive scope allows clients to compare credit types, monitor regional price differentials, and analyze supply-demand fundamentals across both regulated and voluntary pathways.

While several energy analytics firms publish REC price data, Noreva distinguishes itself through its AI-enhanced, fundamentals-first, trade-aligned forecasting methodology.

Unlike providers focused solely on historical pricing, Noreva integrates transactional insights, policy modeling, and scenario testing to produce forward-looking merchant curves across all major compliance and voluntary REC markets — including PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, CAISO, MISO, and CRS-listed programs nationwide.

The result: bankable, transparent forecasts trusted by developers, traders, financiers, and compliance teams for procurement, valuation, and investment decisions.

Noreva forecasts REC prices using its merchant curve methodology, refined over more than a decade. The approach integrates:

• Supply-demand fundamentals, including interconnection constraints and renewable deployment.
• Policy inputs such as RPS mandates and state-level rules.
• Trading data and market proxies.
• Scenario modeling across Base, High, and Low cases.

This ensures short- and long-term REC price forecasts reflect structural conditions, not short-term noise, providing reliable insights for compliance.

A transparent valuation allows developers, investors, and lenders to trust revenue forecasts, secure financing, and align strategies with market realities. Without defensible assumptions, projects face delays, higher risk premiums, or even rejection.

Unlike generic supply-demand curves, Noreva’s forecasts are anchored in real transactions, enriched by policy signals, and enhanced with AI scenario modeling. This makes them both market-credible and lender-defensible.

Yes. Noreva enables users to compare merchant exposure vs. contracted revenues, test different offtake structures, and quantify upside or downside risks before making strategic decisions.

Typical users include project developers, asset managers, banks, private equity funds, and independent power producers (IPPs) — anyone needing clarity and credibility in asset financing or acquisition.

Curves are updated continuously, reflecting the latest market trades, regulatory filings, and macro conditions. This ensures inputs and assumptions remain aligned with the evolving market reality.