Long term price forecasts for the New York Independent System Operator reveal a paradoxical but increasingly important structural trend: seasonal prices are flattening, yet scarcity risk is becoming more acute and more concentrated.
Noreva has updated and expanded its NYISO zonal power pricing forecast in response to client concerns about sharply tighter electricity fundamentals in the state.
The shift is visible in Noreva models when comparing monthly averaging patterns between 2030 and 2045. Today’s market still reflects a familiar two-peak seasonal structure – winter reliability risk and summer cooling demand – yet by 2045 the price distribution narrows, the shoulders compress, and only a handful of extreme-condition months sustain meaningful premiums.
As renewables grow and thermal units retire, NYISO is gradually evolving into a system where most hours look the same, but the few hours that don’t drive a disproportionate share of economic outcomes.
This pattern emerges from three interacting dynamics.
First, accelerating solar penetration flattens mid-day prices, suppressing what used to be robust daytime energy margins for merchant generators.
Second, load growth driven by electrification raises peak net-load conditions even as total energy consumption becomes more predictable.
Third, increasing dependence on natural-gas–fired units during non-renewable hours keeps upward pressure on the price of the system marginal unit, particularly in periods where fuel availability or pipeline constraints introduce volatility.
Reshaped Curve
The result is a reshaped price curve: fewer high-priced months, but sharper and more severe peaks within those months.
July and August stand out as the system’s primary stress periods, with winter spikes appearing episodically rather than structurally.
From a market perspective, this transition signals that long-term average energy prices may stabilize, but scarcity pricing becomes a larger component of asset revenues – a dynamic that strongly influences renewable development, REC valuations, and capacity accreditation.
